An Insight into the Future

At the start of a New Year, everyone makes predictions about a wide variety of issues, ranging from the serious to the downright wacky. Some are positive and some negative and some even suggest that there is no future (like the Mayan prediction of the end of the world on 21 Dec 2012!). A number of experts suggest that Britain will dip back into recession in 2012 (although some say that it is still in recession). A major concern is ‘stagflation’, in which there will be no real growth but inflation levels will stay high. One more positive sign is that unemployment in the UK hasn’t risen as much as expected recently. However, there are suggestions that any real sign of a recovery is unlikely to materialise until at least 2013.

Amidst all the general doom and gloom, it’s worth looking at the potential impact of valuable insights in the short term – for example, continued access to high quality, accurate information. The research industry has been facing a few respondent challenges. Although these aren’t actually predictions, they starting to make things increasingly difficult for Insight teams that want to maintain a close connection with their customers and markets in the real world:

• People don’t really want to take part in research any more
• For those that do, can we really rely on their recollections of past behaviour and decisions or their ability to predict what they will do in the future?
• How many people are really aware of (and therefore able to articulate) the emotions that drive their decisions? (“Let's not forget that the little emotions are the great captains of our lives and we obey them without realising it.” - Vincent Van Gogh)

• Skills. These include a practical working knowledge of behavioural economics and the underlying psychology; and the ability to set up experimental designs, to measure behaviour and to analyse the resulting data. Statistics skills, econometrics and modelling skills are also important – as is a knowledge of how to measure emotional response (both neurological and physiological).

• Methods. According to Sentient, some important methods for understanding the underlying principles behind purchasing decisions include triggers, ethnography, projective qualitative techniques, online simulations and implicit association testing.

• Technology. This should enable you to collect data that tracks the customer journey (not just the purchase itself – i.e. sales data) in real time, whether online or offline. Online is infinitely easier, as we all leave a trail. However, offline is catching up with advances in tracking technology – for example, motion sensors in store or tracking movement via customers’ mobiles.