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A Matter of Judgement
Much of an Insight team’s work involves finding answers to problems. But not all problems are alike – and different issues will need different approaches. Understanding the nature of a dilemma from the start is important if you are trying to decide the best way of solving it.
‘The Thinker’s Toolkit’ by Morgan D. Jones offers a useful way of looking at problems. It suggests that they fall into four main categories – Simplistic, Deterministic, Random and Indeterminate.
Here are some examples of each:
Simplistic: There is only one answer:
e.g: Who is the Prime Minister?
Deterministic: There is only one answer but you need analysis or a formula to work it out:
e.g: What is the area of a circle with a radius of 5 cm?
What is the average revenue per annum from our top 10% of customers?
Random: Different answers are possible but the options can all be identified:
e.g: Which of the candidates will win the election?
Which of five advert options will have the greatest impact?
Indeterminate: Different answers are possible, but because of their range and complexity all of the options can’t be identified:
e.g: How will the Internet affect our retail sales over the next five years?
How much will house prices rise next year?
The key point to recognise is the degree to which judgement (rather that facts or data) is needed when providing an answer. This diagram illustrates the point:
This often causes problems for those in insight roles. We usually focus on finding evidence and facts rather than using our judgement. But many business problems are indeterminate, and therefore require judgement. Too often we can end up providing data but abdicating responsibility for any matters of judgement to our internal clients. However, because of the vast amount of information we typically evaluate, we are often the people who are best placed to make a decision.
So whenever faced with a problem, work out whether or not you just need data. If not, think about the judgement required and what other advice or sources of information might help you in making that decision. Whatever you do, don’t sit on the fence!
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